==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:23 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Kansas City Royals (away) @ Atlanta Braves (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 824944
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
ATL=2 games, KC=2 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Grant Holmes (Atlanta Braves)
ERA : 3.86 | FIP : 4.29 | WHIP : 1.33
K/9 : 9.7 | IP : 109.2 | Season: 2025
AWAY Seth Lugo (Kansas City Royals)
ERA : 4.10 | FIP : 5.03 | WHIP : 1.29
K/9 : 7.8 | IP : 140.1 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L2 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta Braves Runs/G: 6.00 OPS: 0.900 ISO: 0.210 BB%: 11.0% K%: 24.6%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 1.00 ERA: 1.00 FIP: 3.21 WHIP: 0.89 K/9: 8.0
Kansas City Royals Runs/G: 1.00 OPS: 0.471 ISO: 0.063 BB%: 8.7% K%: 23.2%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 6.00 ERA: 6.71 FIP: 5.59 WHIP: 1.74 K/9: 10.1
Park: Truist Park Factor: 0.976 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : 0.927
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : Atlanta Braves 84.8% | Kansas City Royals 15.2%
Predicted total : 9.3 runs
Run line lean : Atlanta Braves -1.5
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/KC_at_ATL_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Game Day Predictions — March 29, 2026
predictions
MLB
machine learning
Today is the first day we’re running our ML pipeline live. The models were trained on 2023–2024 MLB data and this is their debut. We’re publishing the raw output and will score everything tomorrow once results are in.
A few things to keep in mind as you read:
- It’s opening weekend, so most teams have played fewer than 5 games. The rolling averages are essentially priors from last season — the models will get sharper as the sample grows.
- Win probability and predicted totals are the two numbers we care about most. The run line lean only triggers when win probability exceeds 65%, which won’t happen often.
- Not all games are present, we are still working on the pipeline
- This is predictive modeling, not sports betting
Additionally, do not expect these to occur every day.
Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins @ Balitmore Orioles
==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:23 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Minnesota Twins (away) @ Baltimore Orioles (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 824864
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
BAL=2 games, MIN=2 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Shane Baz (Baltimore Orioles)
ERA : 4.87 | FIP : 4.33 | WHIP : 1.33
K/9 : 9.5 | IP : 166.1 | Season: 2025
AWAY Bailey Ober (Minnesota Twins)
ERA : 4.70 | FIP : 4.70 | WHIP : 1.25
K/9 : 7.3 | IP : 143.2 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L2 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
Baltimore Orioles Runs/G: 1.50 OPS: 0.480 ISO: 0.034 BB%: 12.5% K%: 33.4%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 2.50 ERA: 2.00 FIP: 3.21 WHIP: 0.94 K/9: 9.5
Minnesota Twins Runs/G: 2.50 OPS: 0.495 ISO: 0.085 BB%: 11.8% K%: 27.9%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 1.50 ERA: 1.62 FIP: 2.05 WHIP: 1.11 K/9: 12.5
Park: Oriole Park at Camden Yards Factor: 0.984 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : -0.436
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : Baltimore Orioles 36.4% | Minnesota Twins 63.6%
Predicted total : 8.8 runs
Run line lean : No strong signal
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2022, 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/MIN_at_BAL_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Texas Rangers @ Philadelphia Phillies
==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:24 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Texas Rangers (away) @ Philadelphia Phillies (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 823487
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
PHI=2 games, TEX=2 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Jesús Luzardo (Philadelphia Phillies)
ERA : 3.93 | FIP : 2.87 | WHIP : 1.22
K/9 : 10.3 | IP : 178.2 | Season: 2025
AWAY MacKenzie Gore (Texas Rangers)
ERA : 4.33 | FIP : 3.90 | WHIP : 1.40
K/9 : 10.1 | IP : 153.2 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L2 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
Philadelphia Phillies Runs/G: 4.50 OPS: 0.627 ISO: 0.132 BB%: 5.1% K%: 27.6%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 4.00 ERA: 3.30 FIP: 3.22 WHIP: 1.15 K/9: 11.4
Texas Rangers Runs/G: 4.00 OPS: 0.656 ISO: 0.134 BB%: 5.0% K%: 30.8%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 4.50 ERA: 2.81 FIP: 3.35 WHIP: 1.09 K/9: 10.6
Park: Citizens Bank Park Factor: 1.069 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : 0.107
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : Philadelphia Phillies 64.2% | Texas Rangers 35.8%
Predicted total : 8.2 runs
Run line lean : No strong signal
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2022, 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/TEX_at_PHI_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Colorado Rockies @ Miami Marlins
==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:26 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Colorado Rockies (away) @ Miami Marlins (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 823891
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
MIA=2 games, COL=2 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Max Meyer (Miami Marlins)
ERA : 5.03 | FIP : 4.52 | WHIP : 1.46
K/9 : 9.3 | IP : 59.0 | Season: 2025
AWAY Jose Quintana (Colorado Rockies)
ERA : 3.96 | FIP : 4.78 | WHIP : 1.29
K/9 : 6.1 | IP : 131.2 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L2 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
Miami Marlins Runs/G: 3.00 OPS: 0.729 ISO: 0.109 BB%: 4.3% K%: 15.7%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 2.00 ERA: 1.50 FIP: 2.93 WHIP: 0.89 K/9: 9.5
Colorado Rockies Runs/G: 2.00 OPS: 0.542 ISO: 0.106 BB%: 4.4% K%: 27.9%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 3.00 ERA: 3.38 FIP: 3.66 WHIP: 1.31 K/9: 6.2
Park: loanDepot park Factor: 1.043 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : 0.355
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : Miami Marlins 67.4% | Colorado Rockies 32.6%
Predicted total : 9.0 runs
Run line lean : Miami Marlins -1.5
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2022, 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/COL_at_MIA_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Tampa Bay Rays @ St. Louis Cardinals
==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:29 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Tampa Bay Rays (away) @ St. Louis Cardinals (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 823079
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
STL=2 games, TB=2 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Dustin May (St. Louis Cardinals)
ERA : 4.96 | FIP : 4.85 | WHIP : 1.42
K/9 : 8.4 | IP : 132.1 | Season: 2025
AWAY Steven Matz (Tampa Bay Rays)
ERA : 3.22 | FIP : 3.50 | WHIP : 1.14
K/9 : 7.1 | IP : 72.2 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L2 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
St. Louis Cardinals Runs/G: 7.50 OPS: 0.724 ISO: 0.139 BB%: 4.3% K%: 15.7%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 6.00 ERA: 5.30 FIP: 3.92 WHIP: 1.78 K/9: 6.1
Tampa Bay Rays Runs/G: 6.00 OPS: 0.688 ISO: 0.035 BB%: 10.0% K%: 15.4%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 7.50 ERA: 7.04 FIP: 3.99 WHIP: 1.38 K/9: 5.6
Park: Busch Stadium Factor: 0.964 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : 0.201
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : St. Louis Cardinals 51.2% | Tampa Bay Rays 48.8%
Predicted total : 9.2 runs
Run line lean : No strong signal
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2022, 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/TB_at_STL_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners
==========================================================
PROPLOTFITS | ML PREDICTION REPORT
Generated : 2026-03-29 12:55:30 EDT
==========================================================
MATCHUP : Cleveland Guardians (away) @ Seattle Mariners (home)
DATE : 2026-03-29
GAME_PK : 823160
!! LOW SAMPLE WARNING !!
SEA=3 games, CLE=3 games played this season.
Rolling averages reflect fewer than 10 games — treat predictions
as heavily influenced by 2025 season priors.
----------------------------------------------------------
STARTING PITCHERS
----------------------------------------------------------
HOME Emerson Hancock (Seattle Mariners)
ERA : 4.33 | FIP : 4.88 | WHIP : 1.30
K/9 : 6.4 | IP : 89.1 | Season: 2025
AWAY Slade Cecconi (Cleveland Guardians)
ERA : 4.30 | FIP : 4.61 | WHIP : 1.19
K/9 : 7.4 | IP : 132.0 | Season: 2025
----------------------------------------------------------
TEAM CONTEXT (L3 rolling | season-to-date)
----------------------------------------------------------
Seattle Mariners Runs/G: 4.67 OPS: 0.770 ISO: 0.292 BB%: 14.2% K%: 32.7%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 4.33 ERA: 3.83 FIP: 3.71 WHIP: 1.14 K/9: 10.6
Cleveland Guardians Runs/G: 4.33 OPS: 0.683 ISO: 0.173 BB%: 7.0% K%: 28.3%
(pitching / bullpen) RA/G: 4.67 ERA: 4.41 FIP: 5.67 WHIP: 1.25 K/9: 12.0
Park: T-Mobile Park Factor: 0.828 [1.000 = league avg]
Pythagorean edge (home minus away) : 0.068
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL PREDICTIONS
----------------------------------------------------------
Win probability : Seattle Mariners 53.4% | Cleveland Guardians 46.6%
Predicted total : 9.4 runs
Run line lean : No strong signal
----------------------------------------------------------
MODEL METADATA
----------------------------------------------------------
Trained on : 2022, 2023, 2024 seasons
Test season : 2025
Win prob accuracy: 56.2% (test set)
Total MAE : 3.60 runs (test set)
Starter data from: 2025 season (most recent in pitcher_stats)
Report path : reports/2026-03-29/CLE_at_SEA_2026-03-29.txt
NOTE: This model is trained on 2023-2024 data. 2026 is the first live
prediction season. Rolling team features use 2026 game logs where
available, falling back to league-average priors for early-season games.
We are learning in public — predictions will improve as the season grows.
==========================================================Predictions generated by ProPlotFits ML pipeline. Models trained on 2023–2024 MLB regular season data. First live prediction season — we will score these tomorrow.