| Spread Value Bets | |||||
| Top 10 of 10 total opportunities | |||||
| Matchup | Our Prediction | Vegas Spread | Edge | Win Prob % | Recommended Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena Saints @ Rider Broncs | -12.1 | 8.5 | 20.6 | 17.2 | Siena Saints +8.5 |
| Fairfield Stags @ Niagara Purple Eagles | -8.6 | 3.5 | 12.1 | 25.2 | Fairfield Stags +3.5 |
| Northern Iowa Panthers @ Evansville Purple Aces | -7.0 | 4.5 | 11.5 | 26.8 | Northern Iowa Panthers +4.5 |
| Sacred Heart Pioneers @ Canisius Golden Griffins | -1.0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 51.1 | Sacred Heart Pioneers +9.16666666666667 |
| Creighton Bluejays @ Seton Hall Pirates | 10.9 | 2.2 | 8.7 | 79.1 | Seton Hall Pirates 2.16666666666667 |
| Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 1.5 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 61.1 | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +9.5 |
| Robert Morris Colonials @ Oakland Golden Grizzlies | -3.1 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 41.4 | Robert Morris Colonials +4 |
| UAB Blazers @ South Florida Bulls | 0.8 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 52.7 | UAB Blazers +7.5 |
| Southern Illinois Salukis @ Belmont Bruins | 13.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 89.5 | Belmont Bruins 6.5 |
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ North Texas Mean Green | -2.7 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 42.1 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +3.5 |
Today’s Picks
January 4, 2026
Beta Disclaimer
These predictions are generated by machine learning models currently in beta testing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Please bet responsibly.
🎯 Top 10 Spread Value Bets
Our model identifies games where our predicted margin differs significantly from Vegas spreads.
Edge Threshold: 3+ points
How to Read This Table
- Our Prediction: Home team margin (positive = home win, negative = away win)
- Vegas Spread: Current average across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM
- Edge: Absolute difference between our prediction and Vegas (higher = more value)
- Win Prob %: Our model’s confidence in home team victory
- Recommended Bet: Which side and line to take
📊 Top 10 Total Value Bets
Games where our predicted total points differ significantly from Vegas totals.
Edge Threshold: 5+ points
| Total Value Bets | |||||
| Top 10 of 11 total opportunities | |||||
| Matchup | Our Total | Vegas Total | Edge | Direction | Recommended Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ North Texas Mean Green | 154.8 | 137.5 | 17.3 | OVER | OVER 137.5 |
| Manhattan Jaspers @ Merrimack Warriors | 132.3 | 146.2 | 13.9 | UNDER | UNDER 146.166666666667 |
| Florida Atlantic Owls @ Tulane Green Wave | 147.3 | 158.5 | 11.2 | UNDER | UNDER 158.5 |
| Robert Morris Colonials @ Oakland Golden Grizzlies | 151.0 | 161.8 | 10.8 | UNDER | UNDER 161.833333333333 |
| Fairfield Stags @ Niagara Purple Eagles | 147.7 | 137.5 | 10.2 | OVER | OVER 137.5 |
| Sacred Heart Pioneers @ Canisius Golden Griffins | 132.7 | 141.2 | 8.4 | UNDER | UNDER 141.166666666667 |
| UIC Flames @ Valparaiso Beacons | 152.3 | 144.2 | 8.2 | OVER | OVER 144.166666666667 |
| UAB Blazers @ South Florida Bulls | 155.6 | 163.5 | 7.9 | UNDER | UNDER 163.5 |
| Stonehill Skyhawks @ Wagner Seahawks | 146.5 | 139.2 | 7.3 | OVER | OVER 139.166666666667 |
| Northern Iowa Panthers @ Evansville Purple Aces | 136.4 | 129.5 | 6.9 | OVER | OVER 129.5 |
How to Read This Table
- Our Total: Predicted combined score for both teams
- Vegas Total: Current average O/U line
- Edge: Difference in predicted points (higher = more value)
- Direction: Whether to bet OVER or UNDER
- Recommended Bet: Specific line to target
🏆 Top 10 High-Confidence Plays
Games where our model has the highest win probability predictions.
Confidence Threshold: Based on win probability model
| High Confidence Plays | |||||
| Model's strongest win probability predictions | |||||
| Matchup | Favorite | Win Prob % | Our Spread | Vegas Spread | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette Golden Eagles @ UConn Huskies | UConn Huskies | 93.7 | 17.0 | 18.5 | 1.5 |
| Southern Illinois Salukis @ Belmont Bruins | Belmont Bruins | 89.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Siena Saints @ Rider Broncs | Siena Saints | 82.8 | -12.1 | 8.5 | 20.6 |
| Creighton Bluejays @ Seton Hall Pirates | Seton Hall Pirates | 79.1 | 10.9 | 2.2 | 8.7 |
| Manhattan Jaspers @ Merrimack Warriors | Merrimack Warriors | 77.8 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 2.4 |
| Stonehill Skyhawks @ Wagner Seahawks | Wagner Seahawks | 77.3 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
| Fairfield Stags @ Niagara Purple Eagles | Fairfield Stags | 74.8 | -8.6 | 3.5 | 12.1 |
| Iona Gaels @ Marist Red Foxes | Marist Red Foxes | 73.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| Northern Iowa Panthers @ Evansville Purple Aces | Northern Iowa Panthers | 73.2 | -7.0 | 4.5 | 11.5 |
| Florida Atlantic Owls @ Tulane Green Wave | Tulane Green Wave | 71.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
How to Read This Table
- Favorite: Team our model projects to win
- Win Prob %: Model confidence (50% = toss-up, 100% = certain)
- Our Spread: Predicted margin of victory
- Vegas Spread: Market’s predicted margin
- Edge: Additional value if spread edges align
📥 Download Full Report
Want all today’s predictions?
Download Complete Predictions (CSV)
Includes:
- All 48 games scheduled for January 4, 2026
- Predicted spreads, totals, and win probabilities
- Vegas odds from 3 sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM)
- Calculated edges and value indicators
- Team statistics and rolling metrics
📈 Model Performance
Beta Testing Phase
We’re tracking model performance starting January 2026. Historical backtesting shows promise, but live results will be reported transparently as they come in.
Check back weekly for updated performance metrics.
⚠️ Responsible Betting
- Set a budget and stick to it
- Never chase losses
- Bet for entertainment, not income
- Use multiple sportsbooks to find best lines
- Consider unit sizing based on edge/confidence
Resources:
Predictions updated: 2026-01-04 12:33:41.895516 EST
Next update: Daily at 9:00 AM EST